Hoagies, Lies and Statistics

Numbers can hide the truth

If there’s one thing the pandemic years taught us, it’s that statistics are malleable. President Trump’s intervention in Washington, D.C.’s police department has reignited debate over crime—whether it’s rising, falling, or being hidden behind the numbers. Democrats have played the authoritarian card, the race card, and any number of other deflections from the actual experience of ordinary Americans in many of the nation’s cities.

So, who’s right and who’s wrong? One writer observed, “arguments about crime levels are only arguments about crime statistics.” This is important to keep in mind in this current debate. Trump’s detractors point to stats about declining violent crime and murder. Certainly, homicide rates are difficult to fudge, but other numbers are not. The other disconnect is the between the paper and the reality: even if the “official” data is down from last year, walk through D.C. or any other major city and you’ll hear stories about drug-addled homeless men harassing subway riders, brazen carjackings, or shops paying for extra security just to stay open.

Crime statistics have their place, but the human cost of crime is harder to quantify. Seth Mandel of Commentary pointed out that while locking merchandise behind glass might reduce shoplifting numbers, it also punishes honest customers and store owners—a hidden cost never reflected in the stats. Progressive judges letting violent offenders back onto the streets with little more than a slap on the wrist is a well-documented trend. So is the practice of lawmakers downgrading penalties—“calling a whole host of crimes something other than crime”. Police have pulled back from the roughest neighborhoods, and it’s reasonable to assume many victims no longer bother reporting incidents. Why would they, when the police can’t—or won’t—help? This all skews the stats to make it harder to see a true picture.

Do you remember the Biden administration assuring Americans that the economy was “doing great”? Do you remember being told “The Science” guaranteed staying home would stop a respiratory virus from spreading? Well, you get the idea. In a politically charged age, where the only foundation under so many Americans is what they are told is true–or worse, what they feel–tilted stats can be the difference between being forced to face reality and collapsing under delusion.

Those who oppose Trump’s efforts to rein in crime may find themselves defending the indefensible. Take the [now former] Department of Justice employee who, after working himself into a frenzy railing against the “fascists” Trump sent to “his city,” ended up hurling a sandwich at a federal agent just doing his job. That’s where denial of reality leads. Throwing hoagies is kind of funny, until you realize it’s also pathetic—a grown man, convinced he’s resisting tyranny, reduced to throwing his lunch at a cop.

In the end, statistics can tell you something—but not everything. A city can be “safer” on paper while its citizens live with fear, disorder, and decline. And if you can’t look past the numbers with humility, letting your own presuppositions be challenged, you’ll end up missing the truth that’s right in front of your face. Numbers can help us measure, but they can’t save us from reality. When leaders twist them, they trade truth for power—and God sees it all. For Christians, the call is different: we don’t put our faith in statistics, or in spin, but in the God who judges with perfect justice. Our neighbors need that truth more than ever.